The 2006 maximum

After the successful prediction of the 1994 outburst astronomers really started to take the binary black hole model seriously. For the first time genuine predictions had been made about a quasar’s behaviour and had come true. The next outburst is due in mid-2006 however, there is a slight fly in the ointment. One would think that with several outbursts of OJ287 well observed, it would be possible to predict with great precision the orbit of the binary black hole and the time of the next outburst. Unfortunately, it is not. By making just tiny changes in the assumptions a wide range of predictions come out when the data are fed into a computer and asked to model the two black holes. The prediction for 2006 is uncertain by as much as 6 months.

For this reason it is important to study the 2006 maximum. First: does it occur as predicted? If not, the successful prediction in 1994 may just have been an accident. Second: only be observing a further maximum in great detail can the models be improved.

We can make two predictions about the likely 2006 outburst:

• If the 60 year cycle is correct OJ287 should get much brighter than in 1994, perhaps reaching magnitude 13.
• The most likely date of maximum is around the time of conjunction in summer 2006 so it is important to follow OJ287 as late as possible before conjunction and pick it up as early as possible in the dawn sky after conjunction. However, as the outburst will last several months it will not be missed.