The evolution of the 1892 outburst from
1892 Nov 10 to 1892 Dec 8
The following four links are to high-resolution scanned
images of the 1892 outburst of 17P/Holmes. The first image was taken on November
10th, three days after discovery. They show the striking similarities between
the 1892 and 2007 outbursts. However, they also suggest that, unlike what was
previously supposed, the outburst was not discovered immediately, but that
rather that the images are consistent with an outburst that had evolved for
several days. The explanation for the delay in discovering is simple: Full Moon
had occurred on the afternoon of November 4th and Holmes's observations of M31
were carried out at the first opportunity when there was no bright moon in the
sky for a short interval at the start of the night. Probably the outburst itself
had happened as early as November 1st and was hidden in the moonlit sky for
several days.
The blow-up of the 1892 Nov 10 image also shows a massive tail disconnection
event similar to the November 2007 event, echoing the uncanny parallels between
the two outbursts. Were these parallels to continue we might expect a second
outburst 70 days after the first, nominally on 2008 Jan 03 but. From the size of
the coma at discovery it seems that Edwin Holmes actually discovered the
outburst about 5 days after it occurred, the second outburst might be expected in late December, just after Christmas.